A major Islamist offensive against Syrian government forces in northwest Aleppo has prompted retaliatory airstrikes by Russia and Syria. The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a designated terrorist organization, spearheaded the assault, capturing numerous towns and villages. This significant escalation coincides with a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, a key ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
The conflict in Syria involves a complex web of actors, including U.S.-designated state sponsors of terrorism like the Assad regime and Iran, pitted against a Turkey-backed Islamist movement. Russia's involvement further complicates the situation, particularly given accusations of war crimes against Russia during its invasion of Ukraine.
Smoke billows during clashes between opposition groups and Syrian government forces in Majdaliya. (AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)
Former U.S. defense intelligence officer Rebekah Koffler suggests this escalation is a strategic move by Russia in response to the U.S. authorizing Ukraine to use ATACMs against Russian territory. Koffler argues Putin is applying pressure on the Biden administration to rescind this authorization, employing a strategy of "escalate to de-escalate." The recent use of a hypersonic missile against Ukraine and the increased Russian air support in Syria are seen as components of this strategy, aiming to gain leverage in negotiations regarding Ukraine.
Anti-regime forces seize control of villages in western Aleppo amidst ongoing conflict. (Kasim Rammah/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Alex Grinberg, an expert on Russia, highlights the Syrian army's reliance on Russian air power to combat HTS. He notes this is a typical pattern of Russian involvement in the Syrian conflict.
The IRGC confirmed the death of Brigadier General Kioumars Pourhashemi, a senior military advisor, in Aleppo during the fighting.
Anti-regime forces advance in western Aleppo. (Kasim Rammah/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Islamist rebels claim the offensive is a response to increased Russian and Syrian airstrikes on civilian areas and a preemptive measure against potential Syrian army attacks. The ongoing Syrian conflict, which began in 2011, has resulted in a devastating loss of life, with estimates exceeding 500,000 casualties. Iran's involvement has included deploying thousands of fighters, both officially as advisors and as Shi'ite militiamen.
Turkish sources indicate the rebels initially launched a limited operation following attacks by Syrian government forces but expanded their offensive after government forces retreated.
