Recent exit polls from Ireland suggest a potential coalition government formed by the existing center-right parties, although vote counting is still underway and the left-wing Sinn Féin party maintains a competitive position.
According to an Ipsos B&A poll involving 5,018 voters nationwide, the center-right Fine Gael party secured 21% of the initial vote, while another center-right party, Fianna Fáil, garnered 19.5%.
These two parties, which previously formed a coalition government, would require support from smaller parties or independent members to reach a majority in the 174-seat Dáil Éireann (lower house of Parliament).
The left-leaning opposition party, Sinn Féin, received 21.1% support in the same poll, which has a margin of error of ±1.4 percentage points.
The combined seats of the two center-right parties have not yet reached the required 88 for a majority, and coalition discussions could continue for several weeks. This unfolds as Europe observes the potential political shifts following the return of President-elect Trump.
Sinn Féin, aiming to reunite Ireland, experienced a significant surge in the 2020 election, leading the popular vote. However, it was excluded from the government due to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael refusing to collaborate, citing the party’s left-wing policies and past association with the Irish Republican Army.
While Sinn Féin could emerge as the largest party in the Dáil, forming a government might be challenging due to a potential lack of coalition partners. Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil reiterated their unwillingness to form a government with Sinn Féin during the campaign.
Estimates suggest Fianna Fáil could secure up to 48 seats and Fine Gael 39, placing them near the 88-seat threshold, according to former Trinity College Dublin political science professor Michael Gallagher, citing vote tallies to RTÉ.
Potential coalition partners include the center-left Labour and Social Democrats parties, each projected to potentially gain eight seats, as reported by Reuters.
A Sinn Féin-led government would significantly alter Irish politics and potentially the future of the United Kingdom. The party currently holds the most seats in Northern Ireland, and a Sinn Féin government in the Republic of Ireland could lead to a referendum on Irish reunification in the coming years. Party leader Mary Lou McDonald stated that Sinn Féin has "transformed the political landscape" in Ireland.
The exit poll provides an initial indication but does not definitively determine the composition of the next government. Ireland employs a proportional representation system where each of the 43 constituencies elects multiple lawmakers, and voters rank candidates by preference. This process can lead to delays in obtaining complete results.
Key campaign issues included the cost of living, particularly the housing crisis, and mass migration, which has become a contentious topic in Ireland. The election outcome will reveal whether Ireland deviates from the global pattern of incumbent governments losing power after periods of pandemic-related challenges, international instability, and cost-of-living pressures.
Pre-election analyses suggested another Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil coalition as the most probable outcome. This remains a possibility. The leading contenders for the next Taoiseach (prime minister) are current Taoiseach Simon Harris of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, despite their parties’ relatively moderate performance. Harris, Martin, and McDonald all secured re-election to their parliamentary seats in the announced Saturday results.
Fine Gael candidate and outgoing government minister Paschal Donohoe commented that the election's central theme was "the center holding."
The Green Party, which previously held 12 seats and supported the governing coalition, acknowledged its anticipated disappointing result.
Among the independent candidates was Gerry "the Monk" Hutch, who gained support after being released on bail for money-laundering charges in Spain. Initial results indicated a potential win for him in Dublin.
